London plan forecasts and waste strategy model

Client Name
Greater London Authority (GLA)
London, UK
  • Sustainable waste management


SLR has supported the GLA over several years in forecasting waste generation, and strategic modelling of London’s waste management system.

GLA has overarching responsibility for London’s long-term waste planning. With over 7.5 million tonnes of household, commercial and industrial waste generated each year, understanding and planning the associated complex waste management requirements is a challenging task, requiring robust evidence-based modelling.


We supported the GLA’s Spatial Strategy Team in developing waste projections, including those used in the 2016 London Plan. We developed modified forecasts, presenting and defending the methodology at Examination in Public, with the approach ultimately found to be sound.

SLR subsequently supported GLA in developing forecasts for the draft New London Plan, critiquing GLA’s waste generation projections and providing revised household, commercial and industrial waste forecasts.

We have also worked with the GLA in developing waste aspects of the London Environmental Strategy. The GLA waste model provides a detailed projected waste mass balance, with projections for infrastructure requirements, energy generation and greenhouse gas emissions, including associated financial implications (including investment, operating costs and incomes).


SLR developed an updated model, using the latest data on waste generation, waste targets, carbon impacts, facility OPEX/CAPEX and materials revenues, creating a user friendly, flexible tool to inform GLA decisions on future waste targets and infrastructure provision.