Modelling climate scenarios for transition mining
- Post Date
- 22 July 2025
- Read Time
- 2 minutes
While there is a lot of uncertainty around the future climate, we can be ‘virtually certain’ that adverse impacts from climate change will continue to intensify if we do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Mining operations face highly localised climate risks. Understanding how these risks vary from site to site is critical for designing resilient infrastructure, managing operational disruptions, and safeguarding workforces.
Key tips
We’ve prepared some key tips to help mining companies along their Australian Sustainability Reporting Standards (ASRS) climate scenario analysis journey.
- Key aspects of mine design are often based on historical data, which may not reflect the current or future reality. Ensuring long term assets and infrastructure have design criteria that are appropriate for the full life of mine, not just based on historical data.
- Future projections vary significantly based on the scenarios assessed and the specific locations – it is not good enough to look at regional or country level data as a proxy.
- Assessment of a “worse case” scenario is important to ensure worker safety and longevity of operations as extreme events become more severe and more frequent.
- Scenario analysis can be a useful tool at all stages of mine-life. Closure and rehab could be impacted by changing climate conditions – planning for this upfront and adjusting long term monitoring to account for this is key.
- Revisiting operating policies, worker health and safety, and during re-design, ensuring changes reflect the current, and future environment.
Practical application for mining operations
Escalating Extreme Precipitation: Adapt infrastructure design to meet future extreme precipitation levels
All three scenarios (orderly, disorderly and hot house) show an increasing trend in extreme precipitation.
What this means for mines
Incorporate projected rainfall data into designs currently based on the 1:100 year event of 158 mm, including:
- Tailings dam design.
- Creek diversion plans.
- Road drainage design.
- Erosion and sediment control plans.
- Site design criteria.
Escalating Maximum Temperatures: Prepare project designs and policies for future heat extremes
All three scenarios show an increasing trend in maximum temperature over 40°C. The number of days per year where maximum temperatures exceed 40°C could increase from an average of 20 days in the short term to a possible 138 days by 2100.
What this means for mines
Incorporate projected days over 40 deg into plans and policies, including:
- Outdoor electrical design.
- Communication design.
- Instrumentation equipment.
- Operating temperature for infrastructure.
- Health and safety plans.
Want to learn more?
For more information about ASRS and how we can support, please view our factsheet or watch the webinar from our 2025 ASRS series: An Introduction to Climate Scenario Analysis.
